Trend and prediction of COVID-19 outbreak in Iran: SEIR and ANFIS model

Abstract Background: Mathematical and predictive modeling approaches can be used in COVID-19 crisis to forecast the trend of new cases for healthcare management purposes. Given disease pandemic, prediction epidemic this is so important. Methods: We constructed an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model on outbreak Iran. estimated parameters by data notified Iran time window 1/22/2020 – 20/7/2021. Global sensitivity analysis performed determine correlation between epidemiological variables assess robustness against perturbation parameters. Combined Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) as a rigorous series approach with predict under two different scenarios including social distance non-social distance. Results: The ANFIS predicted period February 7, 2021, till August 2021. Model predictions distancing scenario indicate that corona may recur immortal oscillation undergo recurrence third peak. Conclusion: Combining parametrized effective predicting